JULIUS SHISKIN PAPERS, (1934) 1955-78

The Shiskin papers consist of copies of his professional articles and books; a clipping file on his career and those of his associates; and miscellaneous papers and books accumulated during his government service, but especially from 1969 to 1978. While most of the materials are on the public record in scattered locations, their convenient compilations here makes the collection a valuable resource.

Julius Shiskin, a student and colleague of former Federal Reserve Board chairman Arthur Burns, began his career at the War Production Board and built his reputation as a skilled economist and statistician at the Bureau of Census. While on sabbatical from the Bureau in 1954, Shiskin developed the method of using computers to calculate seasonal adjustments of economic data time series. His system yielded more accurate results and allowed quicker release of the complicated indexes. In 1961, Shiskin published his book "Signals of Recession and Recovery," laying the groundwork for the monthly forecasting of business trends. His Census Bureau periodical "Business Conditions Digest," also begun in 1961, has widely disseminated the data needed to make these forecasts. His two publications mark the beginning of the public fixation with national economic statistics.

By 1969, his reputation firmly established, he was asked to head up the Office of Management and Budget's efforts to coordinate the budget of all federal statistical offices and speed up the release of key economic statistics. In 1973 President Nixon nominated him to replace his friend and colleague Geoffrey Moore as Commissioner of Labor Statistics.

As Commissioner during the Nixon, Ford, and Carter administrations, Shiskin was instrumental in preserving the political neutrality of the government's unemployment and work force statistics. Shiskin oversaw the complete overhaul of the preparation of the Consumer Price Index, testified before Congress, and represented the Department of Labor in statistical task forces and international organizations.

The Shiskin papers are most useful for documenting the evolution of his career and his role in developing modern statistical methods. The clipping files portray the changing public perception of the value of economic statistics and Shiskin's efforts to guide the use of these figures. The Shiskin papers do not contain copies of official correspondence, internal memoranda, or technical reports prepared as a public servant. Only broad inference can be made from his papers about his routine activities or his relations with other government officials.

Related Materials (November 1983)
The Ford Library contains very little material in other collections directly relating to Shiskin's activities as Commissioner of Labor Statistics. Information on the broader topics within Shiskin's official domain, including the release of labor statistics and the reform and use of key economic indicators, is scattered in the major files dealing with economic affairs, especially the records of the Council of Economic Advisers, the files of L. William Seidman, and the papers of Arthur Burns.

The permanently valuable official records from Shiskin's service in the Census Bureau (RG 29) and the Office of Management and Budget (RG 51) are located in the National Archives' Judicial Fiscal and Social Branch. At this writing, the Department of Labor has not released to the National Archives any records of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (RG 257) dated after 1945.